Southern California Housing Insights

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Real Estate – Los Angeles Times

📰 From the Los Angeles Times (Housing Tracker)

Home prices are stagnating or slightly softening.
March and May 2025 saw average Southern California home prices rise only ~0.4%–0.38% monthly, with year-over-year growth near +1.9%, the slowest since mid-2023 — lusk.usc.edu
Inventory is climbing — listings up ~38% in May and ~39% in April compared to 2024; homes are staying on the market longer (~34 days now).
Rent spikes near fire zones — wildfires have displaced many, pushing rents up +5.1% in Santa Monica and other nearby zones — The Guardian

Measure ULA’s “mansion tax” is cooling development.
A UCLA–RAND study cited a drop of nearly 1,910 multifamily units per year in LA due to increased costs from the tax, potentially worsening supply scarcity — AP News

Economic headwinds dampening home sales: mortgage rates in the high 6% range limit buyer affordability; recession risk and tariffs are suppressing demand — lusk.usc.edu
Market shifting from sellers toward buyers: more listings, but buyer activity is slowing — indicating a more balanced, buyer-friendly market.

Office market remains soft: LA County’s office vacancy rose to 24.5%, with declining net absorption for 11 straight quarters — greenbergglusker.com
Construction slump downtown: Q1 2025 saw a ~57% drop in residential building permits year-over-year — signaling future supply challenges.

Segment	Current Trend	Outlook
Home Sales	Prices flat; inventory up; longer sale cycles	Balanced – buyer edge
Rental Market	Sharp rent increases near wildfire areas	Continued pressure
Development	Slowed by reform tax and permit declines	Supply constraint growing
Commercial/Office	High vacancy, low absorption	Cautious leasing environment

Buyers now have more leverage — look for motivated sellers and consider negotiating terms.
Sellers should price competitively, stage homes to stand out, and be ready for longer marketing times.
Renters face a tight market — especially those near wildfire zones; options may be limited and costly.
Developers/Investors should prepare for higher costs, less new supply, and fiscal policy uncertainties.